A-level Maths revision · Statistics

Normal approximation to binomial

The idea

When nn is large and pp is close to 0.50.5, B(n,p)B(n, p) is approximated by N(np,np(1−p))N(np, np(1 - p)). Because the binomial is discrete, use a continuity correction: P(X≤45)P(X \le 45) becomes P(Y<45.5)P(Y < 45.5).

  1. Check it is suitable: nn large, pp near 0.50.5.
  2. Mean npnp, variance np(1−p)np(1 - p).
  3. Apply the continuity correction, then find the Normal probability.

Watch out Move the boundary by 0.50.5 in the direction that keeps the integers you want.

See it worked

Worked example

X∼B(100,0.4)X \sim B(100, 0.4). Use a Normal approximation to estimate P(X≤45)P(X \le 45).

  1. Y∼N(40,24)Y \sim N(40, 24).
  2. P(X≤45)≈P(Y<45.5)P(X \le 45) \approx P(Y < 45.5).
  3. =P(Z<5.524)=0.8692= P\left(Z < \frac{5.5}{\sqrt{24}}\right) = 0.8692.

Answer 0.86920.8692

Your turn

Question 1Non-calculator3 marks

X∼B(200,0.3)X \sim B(200, 0.3). Write down the variance of the Normal approximation.

Question 2Calculator allowed3 marks

X∼B(50,0.5)X \sim B(50, 0.5). Use a Normal approximation to estimate P(X≥30)P(X \ge 30), to 4 decimal places.

Question 3Calculator allowed3 marks

X∼B(80,0.25)X \sim B(80, 0.25). Use a Normal approximation to estimate P(X<15)P(X < 15), to 4 decimal places.

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